Austin’s Fantasy Train: Week 11


Austin West, Staff

Back again for another great week of fantasy football is everyone’s favorite fantasy football column. Well, I’m not sure how long that will stay true after last week’s over-performance picks were less than perfect. There were some highlights however as I got to see some of my own fantasy players compete in 49ers vs Chargers on Sunday Night Football in Levi’s Stadium. First San Francisco 49ers home game I have ever attended and got to watch Austin Ekeler, Joshua Palmer, Deebo Samuel, and Christain McCaffery try to help some of my fantasy teams pick up a win this week. The best part was the Niners got the win and I got to watch it with one of my best friends and Football UNfocused co-host (shameless plug) Lavell Harris. So even with some bad picks, it was still a great week of football. 

Overprojections may have been the worst group of picks as Cade Otton barely misses his projection, JuJu Smith-Schuster, unfortunately, takes a nasty hit and leaves the Chiefs game with a concussion, and Jamaal Williams doesn’t even get a full point over his projection. Dak Prescott came to save the day as he worked up five points over his projection against the Packers in overtime. The under projections actually ended up alright with Najee Harris, Allen Lazard, and Mike Gesicki all underperforming. Shoutout to Christian Watson and his three-touchdown performance to help out with that Lazard pick. Receivers are looking a little slim this week so that will be an interesting area to explore. 

Teams on BYE: Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Jacksonville Jaguars

Tickets to Ride

Quarterback, Daniel Jones: Danny Dimes may not be a top real football quarterback but when it comes to fantasy football, Jones has been one of the top performers this year. Through nine games, he’s averaged over 16 fantasy points per game and has thrown for eight touchdowns. The real upside is the bonus of Daniel Jones is he has at least 20 rushing yards in eight of nine games with three touchdowns. In Week 11, the Giants face the Detroit Lions who give up the most points against opposing quarterbacks and opposing offenses in general. The Lions have allowed an average of 23.7 fantasy points to the position as well as at least one touchdown on the ground or in the air per game. 

Running Back, Devin Singletary: After a great fantasy performance against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10, Singletary looks poised for another RB1 outing this week. He faces off against the Cleveland Browns who have allowed the second most points to running backs per game with 27.6 points. Singletary also plays an average of 71% of the snaps on offense, giving him the clear number-one running back role in the offense for the Buffalo Bills. While he’s only found the endzone twice this season, both last week against the Vikings, now that the proverbial monkey is off his back, hopefully, the touchdown streak continues. Add horrible weather in Buffalo come game time, and we could see 90% run gameplan. 

Wide Receiver, Chase Claypool: Only two targets for Claypool in the loss to the Lions last week, hopefully, his next matchup against the Falcons looks more productive. Only projected 8.5 fantasy points but fortunately, the Bears’ offense has started to figure things out and allowed Justin Fields to become the quarterback he’s meant to be. If Claypool can become more of a target for Fields, especially in the red zone, this would be the week for it to happen. The Falcons have given up a league-high 36.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers and have allowed touchdowns to receivers.

Tight End, Tyler Higbee: Unfortunately, with Cooper Kupp sent to IR due to his high ankle sprain in the loss against the Cardinals, Tyler Higbee becomes a high-ceiling play against the New Orleans Saints. The Saints give up the least fantasy points to tight ends, but not many tight ends are getting as many targets as Higbee. After Kupp left the game, Higbee finished the contest as the Rams’ leader in receiving yards, targets, and receptions. This was with backup QB John Wolford so if Matthew Stafford returns for this game, he already has a lot of trust in Higbee as a viable receiving target. The volume is going to be key to the performance Tyler Higbee has against New Orleans in Week 11.

Missed the Train

Quarterback, Derek Carr: While the Las Vegas record surely does not show it, Derek Carr has been playing fairly consistently, especially in terms of fantasy points. He has scored at least 15 fantasy points in six of nine games this season and double digits in eight of nine games. Unfortunately, Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller are both out for an extended period of time leaving Carr with Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, and the backups to face off against the Denver Broncos. The same Denver Broncos are allowing the least amount of fantasy points to the quarterback position and have only allowed six touchdowns to QBs this season. Everything continues to add up for Derek Carr to break his consistency this season.

Running Back, James Connor: Breakout game from James Connor last week against the Rams as the Cardinals were without Kyler Murray at quarterback. Much of this performance was thanks to the endzone that Connor was able to find twice on the ground. Unfortunately, Connor now faces the San Francisco defense who held Austin Ekeler to 13 fantasy points after averaging 24.8 fantasy points in the eight games prior. Connor also hasn’t broken 11 fantasy points this season without a touchdown and the 49ers have only allowed four total touchdowns to running backs all season. As long as San Francisco holds Connor to a scoreless outing on Monday night, Connor hardly becomes a flex play. 

Wide Receiver, Curtis Samuel: A huge win over the undefeated Eagles on Monday Night Football for the Washington Commanders leads to this week’s matchup against the Houston Texans. The Houston Texans have given up bottom five fantasy points to wide receivers with only an average of 23.3 points per game, but the reason for that is because running backs have been so successful against them so quarterbacks don’t have to throw as much. Curtis Samuel is the number two receiver in the Washington offense as Taylor Heinicke loves to target Terry McLaurin when push comes to shove. Add the dynamic backfield of Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, who are able to ground and pound yards out as they did against the Eagles, and you’ve got a combo that makes for a day of running wind sprints for Curtis Samuel.

Tight End, Dawson Knox: The Buffalo Bills face off against the Cleveland Browns at home this week, but this game could quickly get out of hand. Unfortunately, I’m not talking about the score, I’m talking about the weather. Buffalo is projected to get two to three feet of snow as well as 20-30 mile per hour winds. This will most likely mean everyone is running the football like the game last year of Buffalo vs New England. (See Devin Singletary above) Even if the Bills decide to throw the ball, Cleveland has given up bottom seven in the league fantasy point to the tight end position. They’ve also only allowed one touchdown all season. One. Uno. Single. As one of the least targeted tight ends in the league, Knox needs the endzone to be able to see a major fantasy day.

All projections and rankings are provided by FantasyPros experts in PPR scoring format

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